This paper uses a Markov-switching model with structural breaks to characterize and compare regional business cycles in Japan for 1976-2005. An early 1990s structural break meant a reduction in national and regional growth rates in expansion and recession, usually resulting in an increase in the...

This paper documents changes in the cyclical behavior of nominal data series that appear after 1979:Q3 when the Federal Reserve implemented a policy to lower the inflation rate. Such changes were not apparent in real variables. A business cycle model with impulses to technology and a role for...

Recent research showing negative correlations between detrended output and prices during the postwar period has brought into question the conventional wisdom that prices are procyclical. However, this finding has been shown to be sensitive to the sample period considered. This paper examines the...

It is widely believed in the literature that inventory fluctuations are destabilizing to the economy. This paper re-assesses this view by developing an analytically-tractable general-equilibrium model of inventory dynamics based on a precautionary stockout-avoidance motive. The model's...

Using a Bayesian model comparison strategy, we search for a volatility reduction within the post-war sample for the growth rates of U.S. aggregate and disaggregate real GDP. We find that the growth rate of aggregate real GDP has been less volatile since the early 1980s, and that this volatility...

Presentation to the Missouri Bankers Association Senior Bank Management Conference, Acapulco, Mexico - Jan. 15, 2001

Presentation at the University of Missouri-Columbia - Nov. 4, 1999

Presentation at the HM Treasury/GES Conference, London, Nov. 30, 2005

Presentation to the Reflections on Monetary Policy: 25 Years After October 1979 a conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo., Oct. 8, 2004

Presentation at Cato Institute, Washington, D.C., Oct. 14, 2005