We systematically examine the comparative predictive performance of a number of alternative linear and non-linear models for stock and bond returns in the G7 countries. Besides Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) regime switching...

The United States experienced a historic boom during the late 1990s and briefly into the new millennium, highlighted by rapid economic and productivity growth, surging corporate profitability, sustained business investment in many areas, including high technology and telecommunications, and a...

Countries with more developed financial markets (as measured by the private debt- to-GDP ratio) tend to have significantly lower aggregate volatility. This relationship is also highly non-linear starting from a low level of financial development the reduction in aggregate volatility by financial...

Delivered at the 119th Annual Arkansas Bankers Association & Tradeshow, Day with the Commissioner, Hot Springs, AR. May 1, 2009.

Different financial systems vary in the way they contribute to the process of resource allocation in the economy and in the risk-sharing pattern that they bring about. It would therefore be plausible to expect different financial systems to differ in the way they affect real economic activity. I...

Presentation to the Czech Economic Association Conference, Nov. 27, 2004

Regional Economic Summit, Evansville, Ind., Nov. 20, 2008