March 2, 2012. Presentation. "The U.S. Economy in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis." Presented at the Bank of Montreal Lecture in Economics, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia.

Delivered at the Distinguished Speakers Seminar, European Economics and Financial Centre, London. May 25, 2010

Delivered at Washington University in St. Louis Olin Business School. 6 May 2010

How have U.S. commercial banks responded during the current financial crisis? What was hiding behind the dynamics of aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for the entire population of commercial banks to construct quarterly gross credit flows (credit...

Forecasting is a daunting challenge for business economists and policymakers, often made more difficult by pervasive uncertainty. No such uncertainty is more difficult than projecting the reaction of policymakers to major shifts in the economy. We explore the process by which the FOMC came to...

Numerous commentaries have questioned both the legality and appropriateness of Federal Reserve lending to banks during the recent financial crisis. This article addresses two questions motivated by such commentary: 1) Did the Federal Reserve violate either the letter or spirit of the law by...

We investigate the pairwise correlations of 11 U.S. fixed income yield spreads over a sample that includes the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. Using cross-sectional methods and non- parametric bootstrap breakpoint tests, we characterize the crisis as a period in which pairwise correlations...

Presented at the Bowling Green Area Chamber of Commerce. February 24, 2011.