Using a regional VAR, we find large differences in the effects of monetary policy shocks across regions of the United States. We also find that the region-level effects of monetary policy differ a great deal between the pre-Volcker and Volcker-Greenspan periods in terms of their depth and...

Real-life decision makers are often forced to estimate the likelihood of uncertain future events. Usually, economists assume that agents behave as though they are fully rational, employing statistical rules to assess probabilities, and that they maximize expected utility. Psychological studies,...

A large literature studies the information contained in national-level economic indicators, such as financial and aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.) In this paper, we investigate whether there is additional information...

Delivered at The Global Interdependence Center 2010 International Conference Series, Part II-China "Financial Interdependence in the World's Post-Crisis Capital Markets."

March 2, 2012. Presentation. "The U.S. Economy in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis." Presented at the Bank of Montreal Lecture in Economics, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia.

July 12, 2013. Presentation. "Recent Developments in Monetary Policy." Global Interdependence Center's 5th Annual Rocky Mountain Economic Summit, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.