Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though conditional forecasting is common, there has been little work on methods for evaluating conditional forecasts. This paper...

"Most intervention studies have been silent on the assumed structure of the economic system--implicitly imposing implausible assumptions--despite the fact that inference depends crucially on such issues. This paper proposes to identify the cross-effects of intervention with the level and...

"This paper examines the technical efficiency of U.S. Federal reserve check processing offices over 1980-2003. We use new unconditional quantile estimator of efficiency that avoids some drawbacks of other recently proposed estimators. The new estimator is fully non-parametric, robust with...