"Through their influence on the cross-sectional distribution of productivity across firms and workers, job creation and destruction likely have an impact on the rate at which aggregate productivity changes over time. However, the nature of this effect is not, a priori, clear. While a broad...

Forecasting is a daunting challenge for business economists and policymakers, often made more difficult by pervasive uncertainty. No such uncertainty is more difficult than projecting the reaction of policymakers to major shifts in the economy. We explore the process by which the FOMC came to...

We study the contraction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in the United States during the recent financial crisis and show their unusual non-resiliency, which depends in part on the global nature of the economic recession, but also on the increases in the cost of financing FDI in the...

We use a simple partial adjustment econometric framework to investigate the effects of the crisis on the dynamic properties of a number of yield spreads. We find that the crisis has caused substantial disruptions revealed by changes in the persistence of the shocks to spreads as much as by in...

Presented at the Bowling Green Area Chamber of Commerce. February 24, 2011.

March 2, 2012. Presentation. "The U.S. Economy in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis." Presented at the Bank of Montreal Lecture in Economics, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia.

July 10, 2012. Speech. "The Global Economy and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Delivered at the OMFIF Golden Series Lecture, London. Related news articles.

Delivered at the Distinguished Speakers Seminar, European Economics and Financial Centre, London. May 25, 2010

Presented at the 19th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington D.C.