This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West's (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of West's writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of forecasts...

Presented at the 10th EABCN Workshop on Uncertainty over the Business Cycle, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

We jointly test the rationality of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook forecasts of infiation, unemployment, and output growth using a multivariate nonseparable asymmetric loss function. We find that the forecasts are rationalizable and exhibit directional asymmetry. The degree of asymmetry...

Presentation to the Arkansas Business and Economic Society and The Central Arkansas Chapter of the Risk Management Association, Little Rock -Feb. 15, 2001

Address before the Charlotte Economics Club, Charlotte, N.C., Feb. 25, 2004

Economic value calculations are increasingly used to compare the predictive performance of competing models of asset returns. However, they lack a rigorous way to validate their evidence. This paper proposes a new methodology to test whether utility gains accruing to investors using competing...