How have U.S. commercial banks responded during the current financial crisis? What was hiding behind the dynamics of aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for the entire population of commercial banks to construct quarterly gross credit flows (credit...

We study the contraction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in the United States during the recent financial crisis and show their unusual non-resiliency, which depends in part on the global nature of the economic recession, but also on the increases in the cost of financing FDI in the...

Forecasting is a daunting challenge for business economists and policymakers, often made more difficult by pervasive uncertainty. No such uncertainty is more difficult than projecting the reaction of policymakers to major shifts in the economy. We explore the process by which the FOMC came to...

Numerous commentaries have questioned both the legality and appropriateness of Federal Reserve lending to banks during the recent financial crisis. This article addresses two questions motivated by such commentary: 1) Did the Federal Reserve violate either the letter or spirit of the law by...

We investigate the pairwise correlations of 11 U.S. fixed income yield spreads over a sample that includes the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. Using cross-sectional methods and non- parametric bootstrap breakpoint tests, we characterize the crisis as a period in which pairwise correlations...

Presented at the Bowling Green Area Chamber of Commerce. February 24, 2011.

March 2, 2012. Presentation. "The U.S. Economy in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis." Presented at the Bank of Montreal Lecture in Economics, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia.

July 10, 2012. Speech. "The Global Economy and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Delivered at the OMFIF Golden Series Lecture, London. Related news articles.

Delivered at the Distinguished Speakers Seminar, European Economics and Financial Centre, London. May 25, 2010

Presented at the 19th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington D.C.