A speech at the Middle Tennessee State University, Annual Economic Outlook Conference, Murfreesboro, Tenn., Sept. 29, 2006

A speech at the Middle Tennessee State University, Annual Economic Outlook Conference, Murfreesboro, Tenn., Sept. 29, 2006

This paper tests the ability of consumer sentiment to predict retail spending at the state level. The results here suggest that, although there is a significant relationship between sentiment measures and retail sales growth in several states, consumer sentiment exhibits only modest predictive...

A speech before the Association for University Business and Economic Research Annual Meeting, University of Memphis, Memphis, Tenn., Oct. 16, 2006

A speech before the Association for University Business and Economic Research Annual Meeting, University of Memphis, Memphis, Tenn., Oct. 16, 2006

Past studies have argued that housing is an important driver of business cycles. Housing markets, however, are highly localized, while business cycles are often measured at the national level. We model a national housing cycle using a panel of cities while also allowing for idiosyncratic...