This paper revisits the predictability of bond excess returns by means of long-term forward interest rates. We assess the economic value of out-of-sample forecasting ability of empirical models based on forward rates in a dynamic asset allocation strategy. Our results show that the information...

May 23, 2013. Presentation. "Monetary Policy in a Low Policy Rate Environment." OMFIF Golden Series Lecture, London.

November 8, 2012. Presentation. "Shadow Interest Rates and the Stance of U.S. Monetary Policy." Presented at the Center for Finance and Accounting Research Annual Corporate Finance Conference, Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis

Presentation to the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City - Sept. 21, 1999

Presentation to the Money Marketeers, New York, June 14, 2005

Address before Bryant College, Providence, R.I., Oct. 14, 2003

Global Interdependence Center Central Bank Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, May 18, 2006

On May 29, 2008, the Wall Street Journal reported that several large international banks were reporting unjustifiably low LIBOR rates. Since then two large banks, Barclays and UBS, have paid significant fines for manipulating their LIBOR rates, and additional banks are expected to be fined. This...

We adopt a statistical approach to identify the shocks that explain most of the fluctuations of the slope of the term structure of interest rates. We find that one single shock can explain the majority of all unpredictable movements in the slope over a 10-year forecast horizon. Impulse response...

This article uses a DSGE framework to evaluate the role of monetary policy in determining the likelihood of encountering the zero lower bound. We find that the probability of experiencing episodes of being at zero lower bound depends almost exclusively on the monetary policy rule. A policy rule,...