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to be robust using both the realized volatility model and the GARCH model, confirm that the value premium cannot be …
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stock returns, a more complicated four state model with regimes characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery … form. Exits from the crash state are almost always to the recovery state and occur with close to 50 percent chance … suggesting a bounce-back effect from the crash to the recovery state"--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site …
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