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"One basic problem in business-cycle studies is how to deal with nonstationary time series. The market economy is an evolutionary system. Economic time series therefore contain stochastic components that are necessarily time dependent. Traditional methods of business cycle analysis, such as the...
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"A pair of simple modifications to the Kalman filter recursions makes possible the filtering of models in which one or more state variables is truncated normal. Such recursions are broadly applicable to macroeconometric models that have one or more probit-type equation, such as vector...
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"We analyze the volatility surface vs. moneyness and time to expiration implied by MIBO options written on the MIB30 …, the most important Italian stock index. We specify and fit a number of models of the implied volatility surface and find … that it has a rich and interesting structure that strongly departs from a constant volatility, Black-Scholes benchmark …
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"This paper evaluates the ability of formal rules to establish U.S. business cycle turning point dates in real time. We consider two approaches, a nonparametric algorithm and a parametric Markov-switching dynamic-factor model. In order to accurately assess the real-time performance of these...
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