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whether delinquency has any predictive power of the future performance of a mortgage. Using a sample of subprime mortgages … from the loan performance database on securitized private-label pool collateral, we utilize a two-step estimation procedure … to control for the endogeneity of delinquency in an estimation of default and prepayment probabilities. We find strong …
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"In the presence of infrequent but observable structural breaks, we show that a model in which the representative agent is on a rational learning path concerning the real consumption growth process can generate high equity premia and low risk-free interest rates. In fact, when the model is...
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"We show that when in Lucas trees model the process for dividends is described by a lattice tree subject to infrequent but observable structural breaks, in equilibrium recursive rational learning may inflate the equity risk premium and reduce the risk-free interest rate for low levels of risk...
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