This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationships among the U.S. external balance, exchange rates, macroeconomic policies, and longer-term trends in relative labor productivity. Movements in the U.S. external balance over the past two decades have been determined to a substantial...

Countries with more developed financial sectors experience less fluctuation in the growth of real per capita output, consumption and investment. However, the manner in which the financial sector develops matters. The relative importance of banks in the financial system is important in explaining...

This paper develops and applies a new maximum likelihood method for estimating the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model with observable risk factors. The approach involves simultaneous estimation of the factor loadings and risk premiums and can be applied to return panel with more securities...

When per capita income is low, increases in income inequality make macroeconomic cycles less severe. We present a model in which access to credit is based on earnings potential. If low as well as middle income individuals are credit constrained, increases in income inequality lead to smaller...

Argentina's Austral Plan is used as a point of departure for the investigation of the role of exchange rate policy in a macroeconomic stabilization program for a developing country. A model of a country like Argentina is developed and the relationship between the exchange rate and macroeconomic...

a speech at the The Brimmer Policy Forum, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, January 8, 2011

In the 1970s, the Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs) emerged from the pack of developing countries by exporting manufactured goods. Some succeeded and some did not. In this decade, another set of developing countries are poised to become the next generation of NIEs. Which have the...