The announcement of a plan to cut the U.S. federal budget deficit through the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings legislation provides an excellent opportunity to examine the influence of expectations on economic behavior. This paper presents a small forward-looking macroeconomic model and simulates the...

We examine the interplay of the economy and state and local budgets by developing and examining two measures of fiscal policy: the high-employment budget and fiscal impetus. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in cyclical GDP results in a 0.1 percentage point increase in NIPA-based net...

We examine the effects of the economy on the government budget as well as the effects of the budget on the economy. First, we provide measures of the effects of automatic stabilizers on budget outcomes at the federal and state and local levels. For the federal government, the deficit increases...