Using the prices of federal funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of Federal Reserve policy decisions on the expected future trajectory of interest rates. We show how this information can be used to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock in a standard...

This paper develops an alternative test of the neutrality of anticipated monetary policy. A multi-good equilibrium model along the lines of Barro and Hercowitz is used to derive a neutrality proposition for anticipated movements in the aggregate price level and to demonstrate econometrically its...

We analyze welfare maximizing monetary policy in a dynamic two-country model with price stickiness and imperfect competition. In this context, a typical terms of trade externality affects policy interaction between independent monetary authorities. Unlike the existing literature, we remain...

This paper contains two examples of static, symmetric, positive-sum games with two strategic players and a play by nature: (1) a microeconomic game between duopolists with joint costs facing uncertain demands for differentiated goods and (2) a macroeconomic game between two countries' with...

This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound constraint on nominal interest rates. We find that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the U.S....

In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of Orphanides and Wieland, and the FRB staff model. All four models incorporate the assumptions of...

Monetary policy is modeled as governed by a known rule, except for a time-varying target rate of inflation. The variable target is taken as representing either discretionary deviations from the rule, or as the outcome of a policymaking committee that is unable to arrive at a consensus....

This study pursues two addenda to the practitioner and academic on the effect of monetary policy on asset prices. First, this paper applies cointegration theory, and, second, relaxes the stringent assumption in the literature that changes in 10-year Treasury yields, stock returns, and changes in...

a speech at the Center for Economic Policy Studies and on the occasion of the Seventy-Fifth Anniversary of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey