analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of … commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I first document that model uncertainty poses substantial challenges for … optimized simple policy rule--rules that are intended to be robust with respect to model uncertainty--also differ substantially …

.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences … and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. It also implies uncertainty about the model … characteristics and performance of alternative monetary policy rules given the estimated uncertainty regarding parameter estimates. We …

compare these optimal rules against plausible alternatives. Model uncertainty is shown to be a substantial problem; the … rules are robust to model uncertainty may be an overly sanguine conclusion. …