An important but apparently neglected fact about U.S. exports is that export variation over time is dominated by variation in exports of capital goods and industrial supplies rather than consumer goods. This fact suggests that world investment demand rather than world consumption demand may be...

This paper proposes a simple investment model that permits a test of the relative importance of Mexico's terms of trade decline, the reversal in net capital inflows, and the debt overhang, in explaining Mexico's investment decline in the early 1980's. The paper uses previously unexploited...

There is now a large literature which attributes the investment decline in heavily indebted developing countries to the effects of the international debt crisis which began in 1982. However, these theories have not been tested against the alternative that declining terms of trade and high world...

This paper documents that a textbook, supply and demand, simultaneous equations model of import prices and quantities can explain many aspects of import price and quantity behavior over the past 25 years, appears to forecast better than standard trade equations, and the instruments we use appear...