We use exchange traded options on Canadian dollar futures to estimate the market's risk-neutral distribution for the Canadian dollar in the days before and after the Quebec sovereignty referendum. We employ a relatively new technique that places little a priori structure on the estimated...

a speech at the C. Peter McColough Roundtable Series on International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, New York, January 19, 2005, and at the C. Peter McColough Roundtable Series on International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, New York, on January 19, 2005

a speech before Leadership South Carolina, Greenville, South Carolina