Showing 1 - 10 of 12
This paper analyzes the asymptotic properties of long-horizon estimators under both the null hypothesis and an alternative of predictability. Asymptotically, under the null of no predictability, the long-run estimator is an increasing deterministic function of the short-run estimate and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368153
This paper examines a neoclassical stochastic endogenous growth model in which terms-of-trade uncertainty affects savings and consumption growth. The model explains the positive link between growth and the average rate of change of terms of trade found in recent empirical studies. In addition,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498814
Since the seminal work of Mandelbrot (1963), alpha-stable distributions with infinite variance have been regarded as a more realistic distributional assumption than the normal distribution for some economic variables, especially financial data. After providing a brief survey of theoretical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498873
Long-horizon predictive regressions in finance pose formidable econometric problems when estimated using the sample sizes that are typically available. A remedy that has been proposed by Hodrick (1992) is to run a reverse regression in which short-horizon returns are projected onto a long-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004994089
I show that the test procedure derived by Campbell and Yogo (2005, Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming) for regressions with nearly integrated variables can be interpreted as the natural t-test resulting from a fully modified estimation with near-unit-root regressors. This clearly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712812
this assumption. In this paper, we propose robust procedures for a residual-based test of cointegration when the data are … cointegration tests may be subject to substantial size distortions and standard OLS inference may lead to spurious results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368190
Cointegration requires all the variables in the system to have exact unit roots; accordingly it is conventional for … researchers to test for a unit root in each variable prior to a cointegration analysis. Unfortunately, these unit root tests are … not powerful. Meanwhile, conventional cointegration methods are not at all robust to slight violations of the requirement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368250
We investigate the properties of Johansen's (1988, 1991) maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for cointegration under the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368330
-equation error correction statistic for testing cointegration. Graphs and response surfaces summarize extensive Monte Carlo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368469
We derive a definition of linear cointegration for nonlinear stochastic processes using a martingale representation … assumption of linearity. We propose a sequential nonparametric method to test first for cointegration and second for nonlinear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005513026