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If forecasts of economic activity are to rely on preliminary data, the predictable component of the data revisions should be taken into account. This paper applies the Kalman filter to improve the forecast accuracy of published preliminary estimates of retail sales. Successive estimates of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368331
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005512983
This paper compares nominal price rigidity in retail stores during two 28-month periods: 1889-1891 and 1997-1999. The 1889-1891 microdata price quotes show: 1. a lower frequency of price changes; 2. a smaller average magnitude of price changes; 3. fewer "small" price changes; and, 4. fewer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005394006
Monthly fluctuations in consumer spending are often attributed to the weather. This paper presents a model in which weather affects the productivity of time in nonmarket activities (such as shopping or recreation), and so, via time and budget constraints, may induce substitution in spending...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721159
underpricing and strategic disclosure as potential hedges against litigation risk. This tradeoff explains a significant fraction of …. Underwriters who fail to adequately hedge litigation risk experience economically large penalties including loss of market share. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008872028
Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium, or the difference between risk-neutral and … similar to the pattern previously documented for the U.S. Defining a "global" variance risk premium, we uncover even stronger … compensation for world-wide variance risk to be the same across countries. Our findings are broadly consistent with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009366959
High-powered incentives may induce higher managerial effort, but they also expose managers to idiosyncratic risk. If … managers are risk averse, they might underinvest when firm-specific uncertainty increases, leading to suboptimal investment … decisions from the perspective of well-diversified shareholders. We empirically document that when idiosyncratic risk rises …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009395278
We find that firm-level variance risk premium, estimated as the difference between option-implied and expected … variances, has a prominent explanatory power for credit spreads in the presence of market- and firm-level risk control variables … provide further evidence that: (1) variance risk premium has a cleaner systematic component and Granger-causes implied and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008799656
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361181
We examine differences in default rates by sector and obligor domicile. We find evidence that credit ratings have been imperfectly calibrated across issuer sectors in the past. Controlling for year of issue and rating, default rates appear to be higher for U.S. financial firms than for U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368242