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The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages
Fleischman, Charles A. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1999
A model's ability to explain procyclical movements in real wages has become an important benchmark by which … macroeconomists judge business cycle theories. Because Keynesian models with sticky nominal wages predict countercyclical real wages … stickiness or countercyclical markups. The bulk of the evidence for procyclical real wages, however, comes from studies using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393766
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Measuring the cyclicality of real wages: how important is aggregation across industries?
Swanson, Eric T. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1999
There is a growing consensus among economists that real wages in the postwar U.S. have been moderately to strongly … previous estimates of wage cyclicality. In two-digit and four-digit level (SIC) industry data on wages, with controls for … changes in worker composition, I find that a substantial majority of sectors have paid real product wages that vary inversely …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393800
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Movements of wages over the business cycle: an intra-firm view
Wilson, Beth Anne - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1997
This paper tests the hypothesis that firms adjust to the business cycle by altering employment through promotion and hiring and holding the salary structure and salaries assigned to jobs relatively constant. Two comprehensive firm-level panel datasets are used to examine salary setting and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005514124
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Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
Lopez-Salido, J. David; Stein, Jeremy C.; Zakrajsek, Egon - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2015
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t through t+2. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273704
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Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes
Ahmed, Shaghil - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1999
This paper studies the sources of economic fluctuations in three key Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico) using a dynamic panel model, distinguishing between external and domestic shocks. The primary motivation is to examine the implications for the choice of monetary and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368163
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Savings rates and output variability in industrial countries
Schinasi, Garry J.; Gagnon, Joseph E. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1989
The economics literature offers competing hypotheses about the relationship between savings rates and output variability. This paper examines data for eight industrial countries to determine if there is a discernible pattern between savings rates and cyclical volatility of output. We find a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368180
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Sudden stops, financial crises and leverage: a Fisherian deflation of Tobin's Q*
Mendoza, Enrique G. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2008
This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of a DSGE model with an endogenous collateral constraint are consistent with key features of the emerging markets' Sudden Stops. Business cycle dynamics produce periods of expansion during which the ratio of debt to asset values raises enough to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368211
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Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications
Basu, Susanto; Fernald, John G. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1996
A typical (roughly) two-digit industry in the United States appears to have constant or slightly decreasing returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates tend to rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, estimates of decreasing returns in many industries contradict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368257
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Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend
Boz, Emine; Daude, Christian; Durdu, Ceyhun Bora - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2008
The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368262
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An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures
Campos, Julia; Ericsson, Neil R.; Hendry, David F. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1987
This paper considers the statistical and econometric effect that fixed n-period phase-averaging has on time series generated by some simple dynamic processes. We focus on the variance and autocorrelation of the data series and of the disturbance term for levels and difference equations involving...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368308