Showing 1 - 10 of 112
Initial estimates of aggregate output and its components are based on very incomplete source data, so they may not fully capture shifts in economic conditions. In particular, if those estimates are based partly on trends in preceding quarters, provisional estimates may overstate activity when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005512986
An emerging and influential literature finds a large and significant decline in macroeconomic volatility since the middle of the 1980's. In this paper, I examine the extent to which the decline in annual and quarterly real output volatility since the onset of this period of Great Moderation can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393759
The expected return to equity--typically measured as a historical average--is a key variable in the decision making of investors. A recent literature based on analysts forecasts and practitioner surveys finds estimates of expected returns that are sometimes much lower than historical averages....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008872031
In this paper we estimate the value of the embedded option in U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The option value exhibits significant time variation that is correlated with periods of deflationary expectations. We use our estimated option values to construct an embedded option...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009395282
In this paper, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886225
pattern that is consistent with Hicks' composite-good theorem and that may be used for forecasting. To determine whether one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368144
from other aspects of the forecasting process, resulting in inefficient forecasting techniques and seemingly puzzling … forecasting process. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368254
Exchange rate forecasting is hard and the seminal result of Meese and Rogoff (1983) that the exchange rate is well … constructing other forecasting models. However, in several other macro and financial forecasting applications, researchers in … recent years have considered methods for forecasting that combine the information in a large number of time series. One …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368310
This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368311
If forecasts of economic activity are to rely on preliminary data, the predictable component of the data revisions should be taken into account. This paper applies the Kalman filter to improve the forecast accuracy of published preliminary estimates of retail sales. Successive estimates of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368331