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groups in the dispersion of household-specific rates of inflation. Using survey data on inflation expectations, I show that … demographic groups with greater dispersion in experienced inflation also disagree more about future inflation. I argue that these … results can be rationalized from the perspective of an imperfect information model in which idiosyncratic inflation experience …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075121
While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498761
This paper presents a new way to assess robustness of claims from identified VAR work. All possible identifications are checked for the one that is worst for the claim, subject to the restriction that the VAR produce reasonable impulse responses to shocks. The statistic on which the claim is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498828
empirical stylized facts. Pricing patterns mostly conform to these patterns. Most price changes are positive, and inflation is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075123
model does a good job of accounting for the joint behavior of labor and goods markets, as well as inflation, during the … capital played critical roles in accounting for the small size of the drop in inflation that occurred during the Great …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010787055
The 2007-2009 recession is characterized by: a large drop in employment, an unprecedented decline in firm entry, and a slow recovery. Using confidential firm-level data, I show that financial constraints reduced employment growth in small relative to large firms by 4.8 to 10.5 percentage points....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886223
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t through t+2. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273704
strengthen the countercyclical behavior of markups and attenuate the response of inflation to fluctuations in output. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255348
I revisit the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation. I document an immoderation in corporate balance sheet variables … size of shocks and the institutional framework is estimated. The paper shows that (i) while the Great Inflation was driven …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075129
Estimated dynamic models of business cycles in emerging markets deliver counterfactual predictions for the country risk premium. In particular, the country interest rate predicted by these models is acyclical or procyclical, whereas it is countercyclical in the data. This paper proposes and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075149