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Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712729
This paper examines Japan's experience in the first half of the 1990s to shed some light on several issues that arise … deflationary episode? We conclude that Japan's sustained deflationary slump was very much unanticipated by Japanese policymakers … the economy fell off significantly. Based on all these considerations, we draw the general lesson from Japan's experience …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005372613
-arbitrage" models of the term structure for the United States and Japan. There is some evidence that central bank communications can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393978
monetary easing" recently undertaken by the Bank of Japan when the nominal short-term interest rate was virtually at zero … effects were adverse on net for Japan's economy. However, our analysis counsels caution in accepting the view that, ceteris …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005394001
The experience of the U.S. economy during the mid-1930s, when short-term nominal interest rates were continuously close to zero, is sometimes taken as evidence that monetary policy was ineffective and the economy was in a "liquidity trap." Close examination of the historical policy record for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005513040
A large body of literature has failed to find conclusive evidence that the expectations theory of the term structure holds in U.S. data. This paper asks more narrowly whether the theory holds conditional on an exogenous change in monetary policy. We argue that previous work on the expectation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368155
The notion of asset market efficiency -- that market prices "fully reflect" all available information -- requires the operation of mechanisms that rapidly incorporate new information into asset prices. Particularly problematic -- both theoretically and empirically -- has been the case where new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368265
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368328
Even though pieces of empirical evidence individually may corroborate an economic theory, their joint existence may refute that same theory. We discuss examples concerning testing for omitted variables, simultaneity, and rational expectations in the context of general-to-simple versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368372
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368452