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In his seminal 1960 study on the dynamics of alternative exchange rate regimes, Robert Mundell proposed a theory of balance-of-payments crises in which speculators base their actions on the observed holdings of central bank foreign reserves. We examine the quantitative implications of this view...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368402
While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498761
The object of this paper is to develop an operational early warning system (EWS) that can detect financial crises. To achieve this goal the paper analyzes and extends the early warning system developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) that is based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368179
demand for broad money in the United Kingdom over 1878-1975. We update that model over 1976-1993, accounting for changed data … follow for parameter nonconstancy and predictive failure, causation between money and prices, monetary targeting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368427
The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and thus they were unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368480
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In measuring the percentage of foreign-held U.S., German, and Swiss currencies for the period of the 1960s through the 1990s, I obtain estimates much different from those of others. Using currency demand equations implied by cointegrating vectors for Canada, the Netherlands, and Austria, I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712664
This paper studies the dependence of velocity on stochastic monetary growth in a model where households demand money … uncertainty leads households to value money for its insurance against adverse endowment shocks. With stochastic monetary growth … the distribution of money balances across households does not settle down to a time invariant distribution, so one aim of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712765