This paper investigates the relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. recessions in an empirical … divide real GNP into permanent and transitory components, the dynamics of which are different in booms vs. recessions. We … find evidence of substantial asymmetries in postwar recessions, and that both the permanent and transitory component have …

in Japan and to assess whether the recent behavior of the Japanese economy differs from that in previous recessions …

significance suggest both types of asymmetry were present in post-war recessions, although the shifts in trend are less severe than …

useful in forecasting recessions. Specifically, output tends to transition to a slow-growth phase at the end of expansions … positives and improves recession forecasting. The switching model is particularly good at forecasting at long horizons …

(GDI), deflated by the GDP deflator, has done a better job recognizing the start of recessions than has the growth rate of …

forecasting performance than any combination of univariate models. We also find that optimal (Bayesian) model combination strongly … dominates simple averaging of model forecasts in predicting recessions. …