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We study the trend in household income uncertainty using a novel approach that measures income uncertainty as the … shocks. We find that household income uncertainty has risen significantly and persistently since the early 1970s. For example …, our measure of near-future uncertainty in total family non-capital income rose about 40 percent between 1971 and 2002 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024050
A consumption-based asset pricing model with risk and uncertainty implies that the time-varying exposures of equity … portfolios to the market and uncertainty factors carry positive risk premiums. The empirical results from the size, book … (individual stocks) with market and uncertainty predict the time series and cross-sectional variation in stock returns. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009366961
managers are risk averse, they might underinvest when firm-specific uncertainty increases, leading to suboptimal investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009395278
We propose a novel approach to estimate household income uncertainty at various future horizons and characterize how … the estimated uncertainty evolves over the life cycle. We measure income uncertainty as the variance of linear forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008643762
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010725253
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010725314
a speech at the 32nd Annual Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (via videoconference)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010725318
We study a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which agents are concerned about model uncertainty regarding … from climate change to damages is subject to uncertainty, and we use robust control theory techniques to study efficiency … dynamic optimal taxation. A small increase in the concern about model uncertainty can cause a significant drop in optimal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010937973
Using a new-Keynesian model with endogenous capital accumulation, I show that uncertainty about fiscal policy can cause … monetary authority is not constrained by the ZLB. I study uncertainty about the level of government spending and uncertainty … about tax rates on consumption, wages, capital income, and investment. In my model, uncertainty about government spending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010784154
This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010784166