Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were...

Tests of rational expectations in foreign exchange markets have been inconclusive because of disagreement over the underlying asset pricing model. This paper uses a newly available set of data on foreign exchange forecasts to examine directly expectations formation in four foreign currency...

We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers...

This paper provides a framework for estimating parameters in a wide class of dynamic rational expectations models. The framework recognizes that RE models are often meant to match the data only in limited ways. In particular, interest may focus on a subset of frequencies. This paper designs a...

We show how to construct arbitrage-free models of the term structure of interest rates in which various expectations hypotheses can hold. McCulloch (1993) provided a Gaussian non-Markovian example of the unbiased expectations hypothesis (U--EH), thereby contradicting the assertion by Cox,...

How does the additional uncertainty associated with noisy economic data affect business cycle fluctuations? I use a simple variant of the neoclassical growth model to show that the answer depends crucially on the assumed expectation-formation capabilities of agents. Under efficient signal...