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The presence of the lagged shadow policy rate in the interest rate feedback rule reduces the government spending multiplier nontrivially when the policy rate is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB). In the economy with policy inertia, increased inflation and output due to higher government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011115662
In this paper, I propose an econometric technique to estimate a Markov-switching Taylor rule subject to the zero lower bound of interest rates. I show that incorporating a Tobit-like specification allows to obtain consistent estimators. More importantly, I show that linking the switching of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095297
Can the central bank credibly commit to keeping the nominal interest rate low for an extended period of time in the aftermath of a deep recession? By analyzing credible plans in a sticky-price economy with occasionally binding zero lower bound constraints, I find that the answer is yes if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886221
this assumption. In this paper, we propose robust procedures for a residual-based test of cointegration when the data are … cointegration tests may be subject to substantial size distortions and standard OLS inference may lead to spurious results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368190
Cointegration requires all the variables in the system to have exact unit roots; accordingly it is conventional for … researchers to test for a unit root in each variable prior to a cointegration analysis. Unfortunately, these unit root tests are … not powerful. Meanwhile, conventional cointegration methods are not at all robust to slight violations of the requirement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368250
We investigate the properties of Johansen's (1988, 1991) maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for cointegration under the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368330
-equation error correction statistic for testing cointegration. Graphs and response surfaces summarize extensive Monte Carlo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368469
We derive a definition of linear cointegration for nonlinear stochastic processes using a martingale representation … assumption of linearity. We propose a sequential nonparametric method to test first for cointegration and second for nonlinear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005513026
Cointegration theory provides a flexible class of statistical models that combine long-run relationships and short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393737
from eight developed and six emerging economies, we test the expectations hypothesis using cointegration methods under the … assumption that interest rates are near integrated. If the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected, we then test whether … support for cointegration in ten of the fourteen countries we consider, and the cointegrating vector is similar across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712806