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spot-futures spread), confirming that spot prices mean-revert and normally exceed discounted futures. However, these … percent of daily returns, suggesting other factors are important, too. In this paper, I specify a structural oil-market model …. In addition, I find reversion of spot to futures prices only when backwardation is severe. Convenience yield behaves …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721061
a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010725451
A common view in the literature is that the effect of energy price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates is asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases. We show that widely used asymmetric vector autoregressive models of the transmission of energy price shocks are misspecified, resulting in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004967527
widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of … alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying … that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose a formal test of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368161
Gasoline prices influence where households decide to locate by changing the cost of commuting. Consequently, the … substantial increase in gas prices since 2003 may have reduced the demand for housing in areas far from employment centers … 2008, we find that a 10 percent increase in gas prices leads to a 10 percent decrease in construction after 4 years in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498939
reduced form equations which can be used to examine such issues as capital market segmentation, currency substitution …, exchange rate volatility, and the forward exchange market's risk premium. Mechanically, the model begins as a system of … stochastic differential equations which describe the dynamic paths of a vector of state variables, prices, and PPP deviations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368178
We test for efficiency in the market for Swedish co-ops by examining the negative relationship between the sales price … and the present value of future rents. If the co-op housing market is efficient, the present value of co-op rental … payments due to underlying debt obligations of the cooperative should be fully reflected in the sales price. However, we find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368187
composition of expenditure, and on the wedge between consumer and domestic prices, rather than on the response of aggregate output … and domestic prices. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368202
the special case in which prices are sticky and wages are perfectly flexible. When the model is calibrated to exhibit an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368225
experienced the most pronounced fluctuations in income and prices of this century. Is our current understanding of the behavior of … suggest that the role of income and prices in determining imports is not known with any precision. This paper offers the first …-1992 data, I find that income and prices do not affect imports whereas the opposite conclusion arises with postwar data. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368258