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News, noise, and estimates of the "true" unobserved state of the economy
Fixler, Dennis J.; Nalewaik, Jeremy J. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2007
Which provides a better estimate of the "true" state of the U.S. economy, gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI)? Past work has assumed the difference between each estimate and the "true" state of the economy is pure noise, taking greater variability to imply lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393845
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Navigating Constraints: The Evolution of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, 1935-59
Carlson, Mark A.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2014
expected inflation. The inability of the Fed to maintain a credible commitment to low interest rates in the face of increased … government spending and rising inflation led to the Fed-Treasury Accord of March 1951. Following the Accord, the external …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010787050
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The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions
Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2014
Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010892323
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Integrated macroeconomic accounts for the United States: draft SNA-USA
Antoniewicz, Rochelle; McIntosh, Susan Hume; Mead, … - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2004
This paper presents integrated macroeconomic accounts for the United States for the period 1985 to 2002 and discusses issues related to their construction and use. Specifically, it focuses on tying together the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) and international transaction accounts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393642
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Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output
Kamin, Steven B.; Klau, Marc - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1998
The simultaneous occurrence of devaluation and recession in Mexico in 1995, as well as in the East Asian economies more recently, appears to contradict the conventional view that devaluations are expansionary. Moreover, a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature also argues that, contrary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005372600
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News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements
Faust, Jon; Rogers, John H.; Wright, Jonathan H. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2000
Revisions to GDP announcements are known to be quite large in all G-7 countries: many revisions in quarterly GDP growth are over a full percentage point at an annualized rate. In this paper, we examine the predictability of these data revisions. Previous work suggests that U.S. GDP revisions are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712722
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Lack of signal error (LoSE) and implications for OLS regression: measurement error for macro data
Nalewaik, Jeremy J. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2008
This paper proposes a simple generalization of the classical measurement error model, introducing new measurement errors that subtract signal from the true variable of interest, in addition to the usual classical measurement errors (CME) that add noise. The effect on OLS regression of these lack...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721097
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Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases
Giannone, Domenico; Reichlin, Lucrezia; Small, David - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2005
This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables, and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation, while GDP is affected only by real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721098
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Integrating expenditure and income data: what to do with the statistical discrepancy?
Beaulieu, J. Joseph; Bartelsman, Eric J. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2004
The purpose of this paper is to build consistent, integrated datasets to investigate whether various disaggregated data can shed light on the possible sources of the statistical discrepancy. Our strategy is first to use disaggregated data to estimate consistent sets of input-output models that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721267
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The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy
Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2014
We study the impact of regional and sectoral productivity changes on the U.S. economy. To that end, we consider an environment that captures the effects of interregional and intersectoral trade in propagating disaggregated productivity changes at the level of a sector in a given U.S. state to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011027366