This paper examines a neoclassical stochastic endogenous growth model in which terms-of-trade uncertainty affects savings and consumption growth. The model explains the positive link between growth and the average rate of change of terms of trade found in recent empirical studies. In addition,...

Since the seminal work of Mandelbrot (1963), alpha-stable distributions with infinite variance have been regarded as a more realistic distributional assumption than the normal distribution for some economic variables, especially financial data. After providing a brief survey of theoretical...

Long-horizon predictive regressions in finance pose formidable econometric problems when estimated using the sample sizes that are typically available. A remedy that has been proposed by Hodrick (1992) is to run a reverse regression in which short-horizon returns are projected onto a long-run...