Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a … credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment proxies indicate that credit risk is aggressively priced, this tends to … be followed by a subsequent widening of credit spreads, and the timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the …

house prices, balance sheet, credit-channel effects on consumer spending, and balance sheet, credit-channel effects on …