This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the …. During calm periods, the underlying risk forecast models produce similar risk readings, hence, model risk is typically … no obvious way to identify which method is the best. Finally, we discuss the main problems in risk forecasting for macro …

higher default risk are more exposed to runs by collateral providers than to runs by cash lenders, who are completely …

thereafter. This, and similar results using the likelihood of reentering bankruptcy, suggest that there may be an optimal time in … results have implications for the reform and design of bankruptcy systems. …

In this paper, I construct a model of an exchange economy in which bankruptcy arises in a manner similar to what we … highlight some welfare effects of bankruptcy. …

of an additional 10 bankruptcies per 1000 job losses. Heightened bankruptcy risk then declines in magnitude but persists …This paper demonstrates the important role of job displacement in the household bankruptcy decision. I develop a … dynamic, forward-looking model of unemployment and bankruptcy where persistent negative income shocks increase a household …

default risk--those with a bankruptcy history. On average, over one-fifth of personal bankruptcy filers receive at least one …Are consumers who have filed for personal bankruptcy before excluded from the unsecured credit market? Using a unique … offer in a given month, with the likelihood being even higher for those who filed for bankruptcy within the previous two …

Consumer bankruptcy laws, which vary across states and over time, permit debtors to keep assets below a statutory … debts, but they also provide a crude form of consumption insurance. We combine information on state-level bankruptcy laws … bankruptcy rates, (2) households that are more likely to simultaneously hold low-return liquid assets and owe high-cost unsecured …

The recent explosion in personal bankruptcy filings has motivated research into whether credit markets are being … bankruptcy exemptions across states. We note that the literature has focused on aggregate household credit, making no distinction …