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This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with and caused by market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk...
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We study the performance and behavior of Value at Risk (VaR) measures used by a number of large banks during and before … the financial crisis. Alternative benchmark VaR measures, including GARCH-based measures, are also estimated directly from … the banks' trading revenues and help to explain the bank VaR performance results. While highly conservative in the pre …
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