Ang, Andrew; Bekaert, Geert; Wei, Min - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2006
Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out-of-sample: time series ARIMA models; regressions using real activity measures motivated from the Phillips curve; term structure models that include linear, non-linear, and arbitrage-free...