Showing 1 - 10 of 59
Margin regulation raises two policy concerns. First, an alignment of margins to volatility can amplify procyclicality … following volatility spikes but does not immediately lower margins following volatility declines, implying that margin …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075125
The Federal Reserve (Fed) uses a unique auction mechanism to purchase U.S. Treasury securities in implementing its … transaction prices and quantities of each traded bond in each auction, as well as dealers' identities. We find that: (1) In QE … toward more liquid bonds; (2) The auction costs are low on average: the Fed pays around 0.7 cents per $100 par value above …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886228
We examine the role of firms' government connections, defined by government intervention in CEO appointment and the status of state ownership, in determining the severity of financial constraints faced by Chinese firms. We demonstrate that government connections are associated with substantially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011269077
volatility risk. While pointing out the joint pricing kernel is not identified nonparametrically, we propose model-free estimates … of marginal pricing kernels of the market return and volatility conditional on the VIX. We find that the pricing kernel … present a U-shape. Hence, stochastic volatility is the key state variable responsible for the U-shape puzzle documented in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886219
In this paper, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886225
stochastic volatility. The solution is useful in allowing comparisons among numerical methods used to approximate the non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010937975
We estimate a reduced-form model of credit risk that incorporates stochastic volatility in default intensity via … stochastic time-change. Our Bayesian MCMC estimation method overcomes nonlinearity in the measurement equation and state …-dependent volatility in the state equation. We implement on firm-level time-series of CDS spreads, and find strong in-sample evidence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273702
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t through t+2. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273704
We study whether stock market returns in oil-exporting countries can be predicted by oil price changes, and we investigate the link between predictability and the quality of each country's institutions. Returns are predictable for half the countries we consider, and predictability is stronger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255347
We propose a new decomposition of the variance risk premium in terms of upside and downside variance risk premia. The difference between upside and downside variance risk premia is a measure of skewness risk premium. We establish that the downside variance risk premium is the main component of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011261280