If forecasts of economic activity are to rely on preliminary data, the predictable component of the data revisions should be taken into account. This paper applies the Kalman filter to improve the forecast accuracy of published preliminary estimates of retail sales. Successive estimates of...

This paper compares nominal price rigidity in retail stores during two 28-month periods: 1889-1891 and 1997-1999. The 1889-1891 microdata price quotes show: 1. a lower frequency of price changes; 2. a smaller average magnitude of price changes; 3. fewer "small" price changes; and, 4. fewer...

a speech at the C. Peter McColough Roundtable Series on International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, New York, January 19, 2005, and at the C. Peter McColough Roundtable Series on International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, New York, on January 19, 2005

a speech before Leadership South Carolina, Greenville, South Carolina