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Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010892323
This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second … and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts, we show that inflation expectations increased dramatically. Second …, using an event-studies approach, we identify the impact on financial markets of the key events that shifted inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273691
strengthen the countercyclical behavior of markups and attenuate the response of inflation to fluctuations in output. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255348
empirical stylized facts. Pricing patterns mostly conform to these patterns. Most price changes are positive, and inflation is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075123
I revisit the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation. I document an immoderation in corporate balance sheet variables … size of shocks and the institutional framework is estimated. The paper shows that (i) while the Great Inflation was driven …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075129
model does a good job of accounting for the joint behavior of labor and goods markets, as well as inflation, during the … capital played critical roles in accounting for the small size of the drop in inflation that occurred during the Great …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010787055
How often should we update predictions for economic activity? Gross domestic product is a quarterly variable disseminated usually a couple of months after the end of the quarter, but many other macroeconomic indicators are released with a higher frequency, and financial markets react very...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075127
This paper examines the response of U.S. manufacturers to changes in competitiveness brought about by movements in the price of natural gas. I estimate the response of various measures of manufacturing activity using panel regression methods across roughly 80 industries that allow each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010787057
This paper studies consumers' inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Surveys of Consumers conducted by … inflation. Equivalent results are found during recessions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011261278
to maintain reputation outweighs the short-run incentive to close consumption and inflation gaps, keeping the central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886221