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This paper analyzes the asymptotic properties of long-horizon estimators under both the null hypothesis and an alternative of predictability. Asymptotically, under the null of no predictability, the long-run estimator is an increasing deterministic function of the short-run estimate and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368153
regressions with nearly integrated variables can be interpreted as the natural t-test resulting from a fully modified estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712812
trade found in recent empirical studies. In addition, terms-of-trade variability, as an indicator of risk, is found to be a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498814
data. After providing a brief survey of theoretical results on estimation and hypothesis testing in regression models with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498873
Long-horizon predictive regressions in finance pose formidable econometric problems when estimated using the sample sizes that are typically available. A remedy that has been proposed by Hodrick (1992) is to run a reverse regression in which short-horizon returns are projected onto a long-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004994089
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361181
We examine differences in default rates by sector and obligor domicile. We find evidence that credit ratings have been imperfectly calibrated across issuer sectors in the past. Controlling for year of issue and rating, default rates appear to be higher for U.S. financial firms than for U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368242
portfolio size and degree of risk aversion of potential investors, the ability to borrow, and the hedging opportunities provided …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368265
"correlation breakdown." As a result, risk managers worry that their hedges will be useless when they are most needed, namely …. We make this point analytically, by way of several numerical examples, and via an empirical illustration. ; But, risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368286
Risk management information systems are designed to overcome the problem of aggregating data across diverse trading … units. The design of an information system depends on the risk measurement methodology that a firm chooses. Inherent in the … design of both a risk management information system and a risk measurement methodology is a tradeoff between the accuracy of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368299