Showing 1 - 10 of 124
unemployment between the early 1980s and the early 2000s, and a decline in participation since the early 2000s. Using CPS micro … nonparticipants implies a lower unemployment rate, because marginal nonparticipants enter the labor force mostly through unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010728881
unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and … payroll employment and the unemployment rate. Other influential indicators include the insured unemployment rate, consumers … perspective of the model, the unemployment rate declined a bit faster over the past two years than was consistent with the other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011119857
This paper presents estimates of the effect of emergency and extended unemployment benefits (EEB) on the unemployment … ineligible for EEB back to the late 1970s. To identify these estimates, we examine how exit rates from unemployment change across … different points of the distribution of unemployment duration when EEB is and is not available, controlling for changes in labor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010892309
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t through t+2. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273704
This paper studies the sources of economic fluctuations in three key Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico) using a dynamic panel model, distinguishing between external and domestic shocks. The primary motivation is to examine the implications for the choice of monetary and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368163
The economics literature offers competing hypotheses about the relationship between savings rates and output variability. This paper examines data for eight industrial countries to determine if there is a discernible pattern between savings rates and cyclical volatility of output. We find a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368180
This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of a DSGE model with an endogenous collateral constraint are consistent with key features of the emerging markets' Sudden Stops. Business cycle dynamics produce periods of expansion during which the ratio of debt to asset values raises enough to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368211
A typical (roughly) two-digit industry in the United States appears to have constant or slightly decreasing returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates tend to rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, estimates of decreasing returns in many industries contradict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368257
The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368262
This paper considers the statistical and econometric effect that fixed n-period phase-averaging has on time series generated by some simple dynamic processes. We focus on the variance and autocorrelation of the data series and of the disturbance term for levels and difference equations involving...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368308