industry data, we obtain the aggregate, regional and sectoral elasticities of measured TFP, GDP, and employment to regional and … matches the U.S. input-output matrix. Using data on trade flows by industry between states, as well as other regional and …

We examine the ability of auto industry stock returns to forecast quarterly changes in the growth rates of real GDP … rates of GDP and various forms of consumption. The superior predictive power of auto returns holds for both in-sample and …

; as a result, mistaken calculations with NIPA data have become very common. This paper explains the motivation for the … switch to chain aggregation and then illustrates the usage of chain-aggregated data with three topical examples, each …

Which provides a better estimate of the "true" state of the U.S. economy, gross domestic product (GDP) or gross … numerous situations beyond the case of combining GDP and GDI. For that particular case, we analyze various vintages of … estimates, developing models for combining GDP and GDI under the differing assumptions, and use revisions to show the news …

This work estimates Markov switching models on real time data and shows that the growth rate of gross domestic income … (GDI), deflated by the GDP deflator, has done a better job recognizing the start of recessions than has the growth rate of … real GDP. This result suggests that placing an increased focus on GDI may be useful in assessing the current state of the …

volatility of U.S. GDP growth beginning in 1984. Determining whether the source is good luck, good policy or better inventory … aggregate data. We find that changes in the relative volatility of sales and output, which have been interpreted by some as …

Revisions to GDP announcements are known to be quite large in all G-7 countries: many revisions in quarterly GDP growth … are over a full percentage point at an annualized rate. In this paper, we examine the predictability of these data … revisions. Previous work suggests that U.S. GDP revisions are largely unpredictable, as would be the case if the revisions …

important source of error in US macroeconomic quantity data such as GDP growth, illustrates downward bias in regressions of GDP …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data … larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation, while GDP is affected only by real …