stochastic time-change. Our Bayesian MCMC estimation method overcomes nonlinearity in the measurement equation and state …

other key emerging market business cycle moments. Time varying uncertainty in firm specific productivity contributes to … premium. Finally, I find the predicted contribution of nonstationary productivity shocks in explaining output variations falls …

are estimated, GMM estimators are almost always used. We examine the validity of using likelihood based estimation in this …

redistribution shock: a small sector of the economy -- borrowers who use their home as collateral -- defaults on their loans. When … recapitalizing or by deleveraging. By deleveraging, banks transform the initial shock into a credit crunch, and, to the extent that … some firms depend on bank credit, amplify and propagate the shock to the real economy. I find that redistribution and other …