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Improving the forecast accuracy of provisional data: an application of the Kalman filter to retail sales estimates

Pauls, B. Dianne - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1987

If forecasts of economic activity are to rely on preliminary data, the predictable component of the data revisions should be taken into account. This paper applies the Kalman filter to improve the forecast accuracy of published preliminary estimates of retail sales. Successive estimates of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368331

The effects of weather on retail sales

Starr-McCluer, Martha - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2000

Monthly fluctuations in consumer spending are often attributed to the weather. This paper presents a model in which weather affects the productivity of time in nonmarket activities (such as shopping or recreation), and so, via time and budget constraints, may induce substitution in spending...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721159

Yesterday's bad times are today's good old times: retail price changes in the 1890s were smaller, less frequent, and more permanent

Kackmeister, Alan - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2005

This paper compares nominal price rigidity in retail stores during two 28-month periods: 1889-1891 and 1997-1999. The 1889-1891 microdata price quotes show: 1. a lower frequency of price changes; 2. a smaller average magnitude of price changes; 3. fewer "small" price changes; and, 4. fewer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005394006

Sticky prices: new evidence from retail catalogs

Kashyap, Anil K. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1990

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005512983

Offshoring, Mismatch, and Labor Market Outcomes

Arseneau, David M.; Epstein, Brendan - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2014

We study the role of labor market mismatch in the adjustment to a trade liberalization that results in the offshoring of high-tech production. Our model features two-sided heterogeneity in the labor market: high- and low-skilled workers are matched in a frictional labor market with high- and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010937979

Cash flows and discount rates, industry and country effects, and co-movement in stock returns

Ammer, John; Wongswan, Jon - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2004

This paper examines the relative importance of global, country-specific, and industry-specific factors in both the cash flow and discount rate components of equity returns between 1995 and 2003. Our framework draws upon previously separate literatures on country versus industry effects and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368137

Is the corporate loan market globally integrated? a pricing puzzle

Carey, Mark; Nini, Greg - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2004

We offer evidence that interest rate spreads on syndicated loans to corporate borrowers are economically significantly smaller in Europe than in the U.S., other things equal. Differences in borrower, loan and lender characteristics associated with equilibrium mechanisms suggested in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368403

Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis

Ihrig, Jane; Kamin, Steven B.; Lindner, Deborah; … - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2007

This paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased … globalization and inflation hypothesis. Our results provide little support for that hypothesis. First, the estimated effect of … countries owes to globalization. Finally, and most surprisingly, our econometric results indicate no increase over time in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368445

Reflections on globalization and policies: a speech at the European Economics and Financial Centre Seminar, House of Commons, London, England, July 6, 2006

Kohn, Donald L. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010725116

Globalization: evidence and policy implications : a speech to the Association for Financial Professionals Global Corporate Treasurers Forum, San Francisco, California (via videocon...

Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2005

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010725233