We propose a continuous-time heterogeneous agent model consisting of fundamental, momentum, and contrarian traders to explain the significant time series momentum. We show that the market under-reacts in short-run and overreacts in long-run when momentum traders dominate the market, which...

Inspired by the theoretically oriented dynamic analysis of moving average rules in Chiarella, He and Hommes (CHH) (2006a) model, this paper conducts a dynamic analysis of a microstructure model of continuous double auctions in which the probability of heterogeneous agents to trade is determined...

We introduce a heterogeneous agent asset pricing model in continuoustime to show that trend chasing, switching and herding all contribute to market volatility in price and return and volatility clustering, but their impact are different. On the one hand, the fluctuations of market price and...

The phenomenon of the frequency basis (i.e. a spread applied to one leg of a swap to exchange one oating interest rate for another of a different tenor in the same currency) contradicts textbook no-arbitrage conditions and has become an important feature of interest rate markets since the...

In this paper quasi-closed-form solutions are derived for the price of equity and VIX derivatives under the assumption that the underlying follows a 3/2 process with jumps in the index. The newly-found formulae allow for an empirical analysis to be performed. In the case of the pure-diffusion...

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The approach adopted here is based on the decomposition of the covariances into correlations and standard deviations. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two...

This paper studies the dynamics of the traditional cobweb model with risk averse heterogeneous producers who seek to learn the distribution of asset prices using a geometric decay processes (GDP) - the expected mean and variance are estimated as a geometric weighted average of past observations...

We develop a simple behavioural asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists to study price behaviour in financial markets. Within our model, the market impact of the weighting process of the conditional mean and variance of the chartists and investors' reactions are analysed. Price...

Stability and bifurcation analysis of deterministic systems has been widely used in modeling financial markets. However, the impact of such dynamic phenomena on various statistical properties of the corresponding stochastic model, including skewness and excess kurtosis, various autocorrelation...

This paper examines experimentally two common conjectures in the popular literature on financial markets: that they are swayed by emotion and that they behave like a 'crowd'. We find consistent evidence that deviations of prices from fundamental value depend on the emotion of excitement and on...