Accounting and finance professionals have empirically known that in the long run stock prices are roughly proportional to earnings. However, econometric testing could not been able to verify this expected contribution of earnings to stock prices, thus formed the price-earnings (PE) puzzle in the...

This paper seeks to model the adjustment process in the stock market by a continuous time state space model focusing on input-out relations. The value of the S&P 500 is generated as the output of the model with earnings and the interest rate as input. The model is found to fit the data well, and...

In this paper we use a test developed by Phillips et al. (2011) to identify a bubble in the gold market. We find that the price of gold followed an explosive price process between 2002 and 2012 interrupted only briefly by the subprime crisis in 2008. We also provide a theoretical foundation for...

The copula function defines the degree of dependence and the structure of dependence. This paper proposes an alternative framework to decompose the dependence using quantile regression. It is demonstrated that the methodology provides a detailed picture of dependence including asymmetric and...

In this paper we analyze the link between stock market performance and macroe conomic performance for a large number of countries. We study the short-run and long-run relationships and find that stock market returns do not coherently predict future macroeconomic changes for the majority of...

This paper introduces an easy to follow method for continuous time model estimation. It serves as an introduction on how to convert a state space model from continuous time to discrete time, how to decompose a hybrid stochastic model into a trend model plus a noise model, how to estimate the...

We study bi-variate conditional volatility and correlation dynamics for individual commodity futures and financial assets from May 1990-July 2009 using DSTCC-GARCH (Silvennoinen and Terasvirta 2009). These models allow correlation to vary smoothly between extreme states via transition functions...

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of nonlinear time series models. Empirically it is often found that the marginal distribution of financial time series is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate...

This article explores nonlinearities in the response of speculators’ trading activity to price changes in live cattle, corn, and lean hog futures markets. Analyzing weekly data from March 4, 1997 to December 27, 2005, we reject linearity in all of these markets. Using smooth transition...

We investigate the hypothesis that some participants in mature and emerging capital markets engage in feedback trading. The analysis is based on the Shiller-Sentana-Wadhwani noise trader model. It has the attractive property that it yields testable implications about the presence of positive and...