Prediction is based on past cases. We assume that a predictor can rank eventualities according to their plausibility given any memory that consists of repetitions of past cases. In a companion paper, we show that under mild consistency requirements, these rankings can be represented by numerical...

The paper argues for the formal investigation of conditions under which that preference reltions are definable in various simple languages. An example of such an investigation is given.

In many decision scenarios, one has to choose an element from a set S given some reference point e. For the case where S is a subset of the Euclidean space , we axiomatize the choice method that selects the point in S that is closet to e.

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the requirement that preferences be definable ca be analyzed fruitfully in formal terms. More specifically, the paper provides an exemple of a formal investigation of the connection between a decision maker's language and the set of definable preferences.

The main result of the paper is that policy reversals are more likely floowing realization of extreme and relatively unlikely values of parameters that map policy choice into outcomes. A corollary to this result is that policy reversals occur infrequently.

This paper deals with repeated decision problems which are similar to the task of guessing the color outcomes of five independent spinnings of a roulette wheel, 60% of whose slots are covered in red and 40% in white, where each correct guess yields a prize of 1$.

The new decade has been called "the age of information." We show that, although information has become more accessible, the increase in the variety of products has made consumers' choices complex and uncertain. Faced with uncertainty about products' attributes offered by "umbrella brands,"...

Maximizing the probability of bypassing an aspiration level, and taking increasing risks to recover previous losses are well-documented behavioral tendencies. They are compatible with individual utility functions that are S-shaped, as suggested in Prospect Theory (Kahneman and Tversky 1979). We...

This paper argues that when organizations are imperfect in the sense that members may make mistakes and messages may be distorted, then the inner structure of the organization should be explicitly modeled. This paper proposes a framework for studying games between imperfect organizations.

The art of rhetoric may be defined as changing other people`s minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing them new information. One technique heavily used by rhetoric employs analogies. Using analogies, one may draw the listener`s attention to similarities between cases and to re-organize...