Showing 1 - 10 of 271
The general concern on the environmental implications of the rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few years has induced considerable research effort to produce accurate forecasts of China’s energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous study has modelled the coal demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004965192
This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009327870
This paper considers the estimation of binary choice panel data models with discrete endogenous regressors. We present a switching probit model which accounts for selectivity bias as well as for other forms of time invariant unobserved heterogeneity. Individual effects are allowed to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005385429
The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that … frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421234
We analyze the relationship between the prices of ethanol, agricultural commodities and livestock in Nebraska, the U.S. second largest ethanol producer. The paper focuses on long-run relations and Granger causality linkages between ethanol and the other commodities.The analysis takes possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010633230
We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the … forecasting performance of our proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative specifications. While most of the … and useful for forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008469835
that asymmetries show up in their unconditional distribution, as well as in their unconditional copula. The VaR forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005012145
, their local-factor SVF model is not powerful enough in forecasting Asian volatility. This has led us to propose an extension …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005101776
Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005106322
uncertainty in the data. We apply the method to UK aggregate expenditure data, and illustrate the gains in forecasting from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005106334