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Policy and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Vitek, Francis - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014

, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959478

Islamic Republic of Iran; Selected Issues

International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2008

This Selected Issues Paper on Iran reviews that monetary factors are the main determinants of inflation in the country. Government spending out of oil revenues leads to large liquidity injections that the central bank accommodates owing to its efforts to prevent a significant nominal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244775

Chile; Selected Issues

International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2006

The report gives details of the economic analysis for the implementation of Chile's inflation targeting framework. It reviews the current state of liquidity in the Chilean fixed-income markets and developments and impediments to the supply of corporate bonds to the market. The paper considers a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244929

Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth

Aiyar, Shekhar; Tchakarov, Ivan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248323

A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

Ermolaev, Igor; Juillard, Michel; Carabenciov, Ioan; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263685

A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices

Juillard, Michel; Freedman, Charles; Korshunov, Dmitry; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264080

The Perils of Tax Smoothing; Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output

Tanner, Evan; Carey, Kevin Joseph - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simulations confirm that such a policy would require undesirably volatile fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264166

Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices?

Reichsfeld, David A; Roache, Shaun K. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test …-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures …. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369445

Predicting Recessions; A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations

Kisinbay, Turgut; Baba, Chikako - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and … best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369447

Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis

Clinton, Kevin; Johnson, Marianne; Chen, Huigang; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008559263